Analytic on Indonesia’s PDRB and GDP correlation during Covid-19
Indonesia’s economy growth is affected by many things, one of them is PDRB (Produk Domestik Regional Bruto) or Gross regional domestic product.
PDRB or Gross regional domestic product is a measurement of the region’s economy. We use PDRB since it’s suitable to represent economic growth which will be discussed in this analytic.
As for the international measure, we use GDP. It’s a way to measure the market value of produces by countries. GDP is a reliable indicator to measure country’s economic growth.
PDRB Analysis of 2020
In 2020, a health pandemic took place. This affected a lot of sector, mainly health and economy. In this analytic, we’ll observe the economic side of the past three years to see how much the pandemic affected Indonesia, especially each province.
During Covid-19 peak in the year of 2020, PDRB of 31 provinces in Indonesia experienced a drastic drop.
From the visualized data, it shows that the most drastic deflation is of Bali with -9,33% reduction. The average of PDRB is -1.23 %
pdrb_data = pd.read_csv('pdrb.csv', sep=';')
pdrb_data.head()pdrb_data['Tahun20'].mean()
On the same year, Indonesia ranked 61st out of 228 country.
Although populated by score below zero, there were 3 provinces that still had the PDRB on the positive side. They are Maluku Utara (5.53%), Papua (2.39%), and Sulawesi Tengah (4.86%).
These changes drastically if compared to the PDRB back in 2019.
As shown on the graph above, the only PDRB that had a negative value was only Papua. The average PDRB back in 2019 was 4.68%
pdrb_data['Tahun19'].mean()and Indonesia’s is on the 41st rank out of 228 country.
PDRB Analysis of 2021
In the year 2021, every country was recovering from Covid-19 pandemic with nation-wide vaccination. This affected the economy growth, including Indonesia’s, since almost every sector could operate once again. Compared to other country’s growth, Indonesia was recovering rather slow with only 4% growth.
Although with the slow growth, Indonesia economic state still rose significantly. This was reflected on the 2021 PDRB on each province that drastically rose.
The above visualization shows that 32 provinces in Indonesia experience significant growth although there are 2 provinces which still stood below 0.
Before the pandemic, Papua barat is on the 12th among the other province with -0,76% PDRB score. As for Bali, said province experienced the worst growth with -9,33% drop and ranked the lowest among all the province.
This proves that Papua Barat has the slowest growth between all the province in 2021 (with average 0,51% growth). The province only experienced 0.2% growth between 2020 and 2021.
Whereas Bali, which had the worst drop, still got back up with 6,86% growth. Which makes the PDRB on -2,47% in 2021.
In the year 2021, there were 3 provinces which had the highest PDRB rate. They are Maluku Utara (16,40%), Papua (15,11%), and Sulawesi Tengah(11,70%). The three province also stayed on the positive side of PDRB during the pandemic in 2020.
Papua especially experienced drastic growth in the year 2020, with 2,39% rate which previously stood on 34th among the province list with -15,74% PDRB rate. Papua growth between 2019–2020 is 18,13%.
From the previous data provided, it could be said that the average PDRB in Indonesia from 2019–2021 is:
Conclusion
From the data being showcased, several points could be concluded:
- During the pandemic, the most drastic drop happened to Bali with -9,33% in the year 2020, but then it recovered with the highest recovery rate (6,86%) in 2021.
- There were 3 province which still had positive PDRB rate, they are Maluku Utara, Papua, and Sulawesi Tengah.
- Papua had the highest PDRB growth, with 18,13% increase from the year 2019–2021 followed by 12,72% growth from 2020–2021
- Compared to all the province, Papua Barat had the slowest growth
- GDP of a country is affected by each of the province PDRB. Based on the GDP, Indonesia ranked on 41st in 2019. Then in 2020, it dropped to 61st on the list. But in 2021, Indonesia dropped even further, to the 128th on the list, with 4% GDP growth. This could be cause by Indonesia’s slow recovery from the pandemic compared to the other country.
Observation
Bali economic ecosystem needs to be watched closely because it’s proven to be one of the most vulnerable province against calamity such as a pandemic.
Whereas Maluku Utara, Papua, and Sulawesi Tengah needs to keep up its way of economic effort since they had the best outcome back in 2020. Followed by another significant growth in 2021 which affected Indonesia GDP growth.
As for Papua Barat, the province needs an improvement in the near future since it has the lowest PDRB growth compared to the other province. Perhaps the government economic strategy needs to be reevaluated to increase PDRB rate for Papua Barat.
Lastly, Papua needs to keep doing the same strategy since the province’s PDRB growth was incredibly high. It even ranked 2 out of 34 province after the pandemic passed.
Thank you for read this analysis, anyway i’m still open to work in role Business Analyst · Analyst · Business Intelligence Analyst · Data Scientist · Data Analyst. See my Curriculum vitae https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fcWMq76d1ukxoBR2KtWXFJm6XXvINI1t/view?usp=sharing
Analysis done by:
- Pompy Mandislian
Linkedin: Pompy Mandislian S - Medium : Amanda — Medium
Linkedin: Amanda F
Data source:
